Enlight21

Author: Sue C. | Category: Politics | Date: 02-09-2020

To have a good chance of winning, progressives must form a unity ticket before the July Democratic National Convention.

This is the case, because if no candidate gets a majority (over 50%) of the pledged delegate vote on the first ballot, the superdelegates come into play in all subsequent balloting, and everyone knows that the vast majority of these unpledged delegates are moderate establishment Democrats. So, after the first ballot, it is very likely that these moderate superdelegates will decide to back a moderate such as Biden, Buttigieg, or Klobuchar.

Looking at the Democratic primary polls (projected pledged delegate votes from primaries in all states), we can see that no one is close to 50% but if Warren and Sanders unite going into the first ballot, they have a  chance of topping Biden’s pledged delegate total. Separately, Sanders is close to Biden, but according to the latest Real Clear Politics average of all recent polls, Biden beats Sanders by about 4 percent.

It’s hard to know exactly how the second and subsequent ballots are going to play out, but one outcome is clear:  it’s highly unlikely that progressives would gain votes from the participation of the moderate superdelegates, so we can safely predict that if neither Warren nor Sanders can get over 50% on the first ballot, a moderate will be the nominee.

Another reason for the two progressives to unite is that if they go into the convention united, it would galvanize their supporters and all progressives, And the two camps can use the opportunity to heal the emerging rifts in their relationship.

Who should be at the top of the ticket?  That’s for Warren and Sanders to work out.   Sanders is 8 years older than Warren, an age difference that has prompted some to suggest that he should be at the top, so that he can serve 8 years and then Warren can take over.  This is too simplistic and will most likely not be acceptable to Warren.  One possible deal could be that if Sanders takes the top spot, he should promise to serve just one term.

Regardless of how the unity ticket is structured, if they decide to combine their forces, it would definitely enhance the chances of a win

About: Sue C.

Hi All: Like most people in the Bay Area, I'm sheltering at home. I'm trying to use this opportunity to catch up on projects that are on my back burner and trying not to feel too anxious about the worst case scenarios that are circulating.