Number of Infections and Deaths Still High but Trend is Beginning to Decline

Author: Sue C. | Category: Health & Medicine | Date: 05-15-2020

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Currently,  in late January, early February, 2021,  in the U.S., there have been over 400,000 new Covid19 cases per day on average for consecutive days.  Compare this to an average of 200,000 per  about three months ago.   Deaths per day now hover around 4,000, a number so high that not even Dr. Fauci  was able to predict that we would reach such heights when he waas making dire projections a few months ago.  Hospitals in may areas are operating at maximum capacity, with many having to transport patients to out-of-area hospitals.  ICUs are stretched to their limit and doctors, nurses and other health care personnel are exhausted and demoralized, as they work to treat the overflowing numbers of Covid19 patients.

A University of Washington model predicts that at this rate there will be over 500,000 deaths in the U.S. by March 2021, perhaps even earlier.  25 states--mostly states dominated by Republican-conrolled, Trump-supporting state governments that ignored transmission prevention recommendations--are experiencing record hospitalizations and deaths.  

The pandemic is completely out of control in America.

But there is hope:  With the Biden administration in charge, the vaccine rollout is proceeding as well as can be for a decentralized, open society like America.  22  million Americans have been vaccinated as of the end of January--that's almost 7 % of the total population. With more vaccines coming on line (Johnson and Johnson's, Novavax's,  and AstraZeneca's), it has been projected that by this spring, up to 50% of Americans will have received at least their first dose of one of the vaccines.

It is time to be hopeful!

As of February 4th at 9:00  AM (PST), there are over 27 milion cases and 466,403 deaths from Covid19 in the U.S. In California, there are now  3,349,557 confirmed cases and over 40,000 deaths.. In the Bay Area, Santa Clara county now has over 103,000 cases (1,473 deaths), San Mateo has  over 36,000 cases and close to 400 deaths.  And San Francisco has almost 32,000 cases and 328 deaths.

Of all California counties,  LA county continues to have the highest number of cases, and the infection numbers are still soaring (1,111,089 infected with 16,647 deaths)

Governor Newsom just announced that vaccines are finally coming to your local pharmacies, with frontline health care workers and nursing home residents getting them first.  And just a few days ago, those 65 and over have been added to the priority list.

Why have California's cases and hospitalizations reached such a high level?  Many attribute the continuing spread to loosening of restrictions and the lax observance of social distancing and mask wearing.  Mostly, new infections have sprung from gatherings of friends/family, and from mursing facilities.  In one case, an out-of-state traveler managed to be a super spreader, transmitting the virus to a few and from that, concentric circles of Californians were infected (more).

 

 

History of Coronavirus Bills:

In April, the House, led by the Democrats, passed the first major Coronavirus bill--the CARES act--providing free coronavirus testing and treatment and paid emergency leave with two weeks of paid sick leave and up to three months of paid family and medical leave.  Included in the first bill were direct payments of $1200 for an individual and $2400 for a couple to tax-paying Americans.  There was also a business loan provision that was more or less gone after the first couple of days as most of ithe money went to large corporations.

Two subsequent coronavirus companion bills were passed--on the insistence of the Democrats.  The Dems wanted money for state/local governments, hospitals, the US post office, and loans that would go to small businesses, but there was tremendous pushback by Senate Republicans.  Republicans did NOT want to support state/local governments, the post office, or hospitals.  The final version of these 2 bills was a compromise:  Dems got money for hospitals and promises that there would be money earmarked for small businesses, but Republican senators, led by Mitch McConnell, refused to allocate funds for the post office and state/local governments.  The Republicans promised that they would consider aid to state/local governments in the next bill, but the "next bill" promises usually never materialize, especially after Senator Mitch McConnell said  that states should just declare bankruptcy.

Now, with the Democrats in charge, it appears imminent that a major 1.9 trillion pandemic bill will be passed in the next few days, one that will be much more comprehensive than any of the previous ones passed by the Trump administration.

We shall see.  Stay tuned.

 

  Origins:  China’s Wildlife Markets and Alternative Hypotheses


If you are wondering where the Corona virus may have originated, look no further than China’s thriving markets that sell wildlife (akin to “bushmeat” in Africa).  Just like the SARS virus epidemic in 2003, the origins are clear:  for both epidemics, markets like the one in Wuhan, the source of the current cornona virus, are the source. These wildlife markets sell all kinds of exotic wildlife such as civet cats, snakes, pangolins, etc., to restaurants and affluent  customers who see providing such exotic meats as a status symbol.  Such commercial trafficking in wildlife sales is enabled by a persistent superstitious belief in the health benefits of exotic meat in Chinese culture.  

Even though the precise trajectory of how the current Coronavirus sprang from wildlife to humans has not yet been pinpointed, wildlife experts such as Christian Walzer of the Wildlife Conservation Society states that confining wild animals in small cages is a perfect breeding ground for new viruses  because “Each animal is a package of pathogens.”  

In fact, such transmission of lethal viruses that jumped from wild animals to humans has happened over and over again.  To name just a few--the Bubonic plague, malaria, toxoplasmosis, rabies—are all viruses that hopped from other species to infect humans.  

More recently, these are the most infamous inter-species epidemics: the Zika virus, which originated in the forests of Africa and is transmitted by mosquitoes, the infamous Ebola virus that is thought to have originated in Africa from bushmeat consumption, the SARS virus from China’s wildlife markets, and the extremely lethal AIDS virus that was traced to chimps and other primates in Africa before it established a strong foothold among humans (most likely from the increased  consumption of bushmeat).  more
 

While the President downplayed the coronavirus threat initially, the Center of Disease Control (CDC) warned that the virus will spread across the U.S. and recommended in late February/early March that community organizations such as schools, hospitals and businesses, begin to prepare for a pandemic.  

The World Health Organization declared in February that we are in the midst of a pandemic.  Projections are that in the U.S. there will be 150 million infected eventually, and 60,000 deaths by the end of August.  Right now (in early May), at almost 80,000 deaths, the U.S. has already exceeded this projected number of deaths. 

The Wuhan Lab Origins Story

An alternative hypothesis of Covid19's origins is that it sprang from a Wuhan virology lab, either intentionally or accidentally.  One cited "proof" is that the number of infected seemed to radiate from where the lab is located.  Another oft-cited point is that the lab was doing research on coronaviruses and Chinese labs are known for their sloppy procedures, so an accidental release seems likely.

Some scientists claimed to have examined Covid19 and have concluded that it was not a manmade virus. But we have not been told what the criteria they used were, so we do not know how valid this conclusion is.

Coverup in Communist China and Hoarding Supplies

As more is known about what Communist China did in the early days of the spread, it has become clear that there was a coverup in Wuhan:  When doctors tried to sound the alarm in November and December, they were suppressed.  But when the number of deaths piled up, the Communist Chinese government, always an exported of PPEs (masks, gowns, and gloves), became a net importer.  According to a Washingpost article, the Communist Chinese government hid the severity of the pandemic, so that it could hoard supplies in anticipation of  profiting from outbreaks around the world.

 

The Nature of the Virus (Covid19)

This new Coronavirus has exceeded the fatality and infection numbers of SARS in 2003:  The total number infected with SARS was 8,000 and the number of deaths was 774.
 

The incubation period is 2 to 14 days, so countries are quarantining people form China for up to 14 days.  

It is a respiratory virus that travels through the air in tiny droplets but falls to the ground within a few feet of the source of infection (unlike the TB and measles viruses that can travel a few hundred feet).  According to a Lancet study, one person is most likely to infect 2.2  others, which means that it is quite infectious, more so than even the deadly 1918 flu virus. (more)

Because it is a respiratory virus, the symptoms are fever, cough, shortness of breath and pneumonia as the virus latches onto the surface of lung cells and destroys lung tissues.   The fatality rate is  about 10 times higher than the .1% for most flus. The actual rate has ranged from 3% to 6.7% in Italy where there are more senior citizens than in most other countries.  In the U.S. currently the national fatality rate of Covid19 is about 5 to 6% but it will decline as more people are tested.

 

Analysis and Opinion:


Humans should stop eating wildlife and, we should do all we can to preserve the ecosystems that are the natural habitats of  wildlife species.  Because of the loss of a high percentage of natural habitats due to the encroachment of humans’ commercial activities and through direct poaching, many wild species have either died or have been living under stressful conditions.  Furthermore, climate change/global warming has contributed to the degradation of ecosystems.  


This means that ecosystems in which wild animals play critical roles in offering beneficial services--filtering water, air purification, climate regulation, waste treatment, pollination, raw materials, disease regulation, etc.--are being destroyed at a rapid clip, and with that, wildlife in poor health are prey to viruses and bacteria, which they could have resisted had they been in good health.  


And when they are further stressed through captivity, they are unable to mount effective immune reactions and the viruses they harbor will be able to multiply rapidly.  Once in contact with humans, these lethal microbes find great hosts to help them propagate.  

 

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