Biden's Big South Carolina Win Could Change Trajectory of Race

Author: Sue C. | Category: Politics National | Date: 03-01-2020

baner_new

Biden’s substantial 28 point margin over Bernie Sanders in South Carolina’s primary has changed the trajectory of the Democratic primary race if he can carry the momentum into next week’s Super Tuesday primaries when 34% of convention delegates will be allocated by primaries in 14 states and 1 territory.

The result in South Carolina with 100 % of precincts reporting:
Biden:          48.45%
Sanders:       19.91%
Steyer:           11.33
Buttigieg       8.24
Warren:        7.07
Kobuchar:    3.15

With this big victory, Biden now has 44 pledged delegates to Bernie’s 54.  Biden will be quite competitive at the Democratic National Convention in July if he can prevent Bernie from taking the lion’s share of delegates on Super Tuesday.


One Super Tuesday state, California, will be awarding a whopping 415 delegates.   How the California primary plays out will have a significant influence on Biden’s and Bernie’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Right now, Bernie is way ahead of everyone else in California according to polls.  Based on an average of polls in California, here is how all the candidates stand:

As of Feb. 29, 2020:  Average of polls in California:
Bernie:          33.8
Warren:         14.3
Biden:            13.1
Bloomberg:    11.2
Buttigieg:       8.3
Klobuchar:     4.7
No one has 15% so far, although Warren and Biden are close.  

Why is 15% important?   Because according to Democratic party rules, only candidates with at least 15% of votes will earn delegates.  

As can be seen, because there are so many candidates, the votes are split among them, with Bernie on top.  If none of the other 5 candidates can reach 15% statewide, virtually all of California’s delegates will be awarded to Sanders, with perhaps a few going to others who manage to reach 15% or more at the county level.
If Buttigieg, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg drops out, Biden will definitely reap some benefits, as he is likely to pick up a substantial proportion of the moderate Dem votes that would have gone to the other three.

In any case, thanks to Congressman Jim Clyburn who endorsed Biden at the last minute, Biden’s big win in South Carolina, places him in a potentially promising position—that is, if some other things fall into place.
 

 

SHARE THIS NOW

Comment:

FName LNameAint March 12, 2020 3:12 am
news comment